On November 3, 2026, the United States will hold its midterm elections—so called because they take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Voters in 36 states will also elect governors. In addition, elections will be held for state legislatures, local offices, and ballot measures.
Why Are These Elections Important for Trump?
Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Losing even one would strip the president of his ability to pass new legislation solely with Republican votes and would pave the way for congressional investigations into his administration. A heavy defeat would also weaken his authority within the Republican Party ahead of the 2028 presidential election, when his successor will be chosen.
Presidents’ parties frequently lose seats during midterms. This year, Trump is particularly unpopular: in a Marist Poll released on October 27, 59% of likely voters disapproved of his job performance, while 40% approved. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 22–26, Trump’s approval rating stands at 32%—the lowest for any president since the 1950s.
Trump had promised to lower the cost of living, but rising prices remain a major concern for Americans. The war with Iran and protests against his immigration policies have dominated recent months. According to the Marist poll, 44% of voters will participate primarily to express opposition to Trump, while 21% will do so to support him.
Who Is Favored, and How Reliable Are the Polls?
Democrats are clear favorites to win the House, as also indicated by The Economist’s forecasting model. In the Senate, however, several races remain competitive. In the Marist survey conducted October 19–20, 52% of likely voters favored the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 44% who preferred the Republican.
This generic ballot is a useful metric for gauging the national political mood. However, there is no single national election for the House: voting takes place separately across 435 congressional districts, each electing one representative. The majority is determined by the total number of districts won by each party, not by the national popular vote total.
Pollsters’ work has become more challenging as response rates decline. Those who agree to take surveys may differ demographically or politically from those who refuse. To build representative samples, polling institutes weight responses based on education, age, and other demographics—sometimes even factoring in past voting behavior.
While these adjustments can improve accuracy, flawed assumptions risk introducing new biases. Pollsters must also determine which respondents will actually vote: surveying registered voters is not enough, as a portion will abstain. Overestimating turnout for a particular party risks inflating its projected performance.
In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, polls consistently underestimated Trump’s strength, particularly in key battleground states. In 2024, the margin of error was narrower, but polling still skewed slightly in favor of Republicans relative to final results. Midterm polling in 2018 and 2022 was generally more accurate, though errors in individual races still occurred. On October 27, pollster and journalist Nate Silver noted that a shift of just a few percentage points could wipe out slim Democratic leads in key Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine.
Why Could the House and Senate Produce Different Results?
In the House, each state is allocated seats proportional to its population, elected in single-member districts where the candidate with the most votes wins. In the Senate, every state has two representatives: California, the most populous state, carries the same weight as Wyoming, the least populous.
Securing a House majority requires 218 seats. In the Senate, Republicans start with a 53 to 47 advantage over Democrats. To reach a 51-seat majority, Democrats must flip at least four Republican-held seats without losing any of their own; any potential loss would need to be offset by an additional pick-up. In the event of a 50–50 tie, Vice President J.D. Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote for Republicans.
House races are also heavily influenced by gerrymandering—the redrawing of district boundaries to favor a specific political party. Gerrymandering dilutes the impact of opposing votes by either spreading rival voters across many districts where they remain a minority (“cracking”) or packing them into a few overwhelmingly safe districts (“packing”). In this cycle, Republicans redrew maps in states like Texas, while Democrats did the same in California.
Which Races and Candidates Should You Watch?
In Texas, a Democrat could be elected to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1988. The Democratic nominee is James Talarico, a former teacher and Presbyterian theology student. He faces Attorney General Ken Paxton, a staunch Trump ally who has been embroiled in numerous ethical and legal controversies. In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, a former union logger advocating for universal public healthcare and higher taxes on billionaires.
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown—who represented the state in the Senate from 2007 to 2025 before being defeated in 2024—is challenging Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vance when he became vice president.
In Michigan, Democrats are defending the seat left open by Gary Peters. Their nominee is Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim physician and son of Egyptian immigrants who previously led Detroit’s and Wayne County’s public health departments. He faces Republican Mike Rogers.
Read also:Rising Inflation Is Terrible News for Trump
North Carolina, Iowa, and Alaska are all holding Senate elections for Republican-held seats; winning any of these would significantly aid Democrats in their bid for a majority.
In the House, Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District features a matchup between Democrat Lindsay James, a Presbyterian minister, and Trump-aligned Republican Joe Mitchell. James is campaigning to restore funding for health insurance programs and counter cuts to Medicaid, the federal health coverage program for low-income Americans. In this district, where Trump defeated Kamala Harris by roughly ten points in 2024, several healthcare facilities have already closed or scaled back services.
What Key Issues Have Driven the Campaign?
The cost of living remains top-of-mind for voters. Democrats blame Trump for driving up prices through tariffs and the conflict with Iran, which triggered a spike in fuel costs.
Trump continues to emphasize immigration, framing deportations as a promise kept. Conversely, Democrats criticize the tactics of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) and highlight alleged abuses committed during federal immigration enforcement operations.
Democrats are actively attacking cuts to Medicaid, the rollbacks of Obamacare health insurance subsidies, and restrictions on SNAP—the federal program that provides monthly grocery assistance to low-income families via EBT cards.
Artificial intelligence data centers have also emerged as a prominent campaign issue, facing backlash over heavy energy consumption and rising electricity bills. In Ohio, Brown has called for tech companies to bear these infrastructure costs. Corruption has also taken center stage: Democrats have cited the Epstein case to accuse the administration of protecting powerful figures, calling for the immediate release of remaining classified documents.
What Do These Elections Signal for the Future of the Democratic Party?
The results will offer clues as to which candidates and platforms best resonate with voters disillusioned by Trump. A strategic divide persists within the Democratic Party: moderates are prioritizing outreach to independents and disaffected Republicans, while progressives advocate for universal healthcare, higher wages, and stricter limits on corporate power.
In Michigan, El-Sayed defeated moderate Representative Haley Stevens—who was backed by party leadership—in the primary. In Texas, Talarico utilizes religious rhetoric to sell progressive economic policies to conservative voters.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the high-profile New York representative and a leading voice of the Democratic left, has been campaigning for several progressive candidates, including El-Sayed and Jackson. Victories for these candidates in competitive swing states would allow Ocasio-Cortez to argue that progressive ideas can win outside traditional Democratic strongholds. This outcome bears directly on her own political trajectory, amid growing speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run.
Who Will Turn Out, and Why Do Youth and Latino Voters Matter So Much?
Voter turnout in midterm elections is historically lower than in presidential years. Consequently, electoral outcomes depend not only on voters switching parties, but on who chooses to stay home. In 2024, Trump made notable gains among young men and Hispanic voters.
Recent polling suggests a decline in Republican support among some of these demographics. Nate Cohn of The New York Times notes that voter dissatisfaction has broadened to include white men and other core conservative constituencies. These voters may not necessarily vote Democratic; instead, they may simply abstain, which still harms Republican candidates.
For Republicans, a key challenge will be mobilizing voters who turned out specifically for Trump in 2024 and may be less motivated when he is not on the ballot. Democrats, meanwhile, are focused on rallying voters dissatisfied with the current administration. However, neither young voters nor Hispanic voters form a monolithic bloc.
Among young voters, stark preferences exist along gender lines; among Hispanic voters, country of origin and state of residence play critical roles. Treating the “youth vote” or “Latino vote” as uniform risks obscuring these vital nuances.
What Else Is on the Ballot?
Voters will choose 36 governors and fill the majority of state legislative seats, along with numerous local offices. Governors head state executive branches and, alongside state legislatures, hold broad authority over education, healthcare, and abortion access—often serving as a key check on federal initiatives through legal action.
In many states, voters will directly elect officials who are appointed in other political systems: state attorneys general (who represent the state in legal proceedings and head state justice departments), secretaries of state (who oversee election administration), and state supreme court judges.
Direct democracy measures are also widespread, with voters considering ballot initiatives that directly amend state laws or constitutions. Abortion remains a central issue following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning federal constitutional protections.
In Missouri, voters will decide whether to repeal reproductive rights protections approved in 2024 to allow new restrictions. In Nevada, a second and final vote is required to constitutionalize abortion rights; Virginia voters will consider a ballot measure protecting reproductive freedom. In California, Proposition 40 proposes a one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires residing in the state as of January 1, 2026, with 90% of revenue earmarked for public healthcare funding—making it one of the most high-stakes votes on wealth inequality and public service funding in the country.
What Would Change with a Democratic Victory?
Winning even one chamber would allow Democrats to block administration legislation and force spending compromises. A Democratic House could launch formal investigations into ICE enforcement practices and ethics concerns surrounding money and politics. Securing a Senate majority would additionally give Democrats the power to block presidential appointments, including federal judges.
However, Trump would retain his presidential veto power over congressional bills, as well as broad executive authority. Mass deportations, tariffs, and previously passed legislation would not be automatically repealed by an opposition win. Democrats could also initiate impeachment proceedings against the president.
While the House can impeach a president with a simple majority vote, conviction and removal require a two-thirds majority in the Senate—meaning even a Democratic-controlled Senate would need support from Republican senators to remove him from office.
On foreign policy, Congress could exert tighter oversight on administration decisions, condition military aid, and legislate sanctions—with direct implications for European relations, aid to Ukraine, and ongoing Middle East conflicts. Divergences between Trump and congressional Republicans on Russia could become more pronounced. According to Reuters, several Republican lawmakers have already joined Democrats in urging the president to fully enforce sanctions against Moscow, opposing any efforts to ease them.
Defense authorization and government spending bills could serve as primary levers for Congress to constrain executive action, though broad foreign policy authority would remain largely in Trump’s hands.
When Will Results Be Known, and How Could Trump Interfere?
Initial results will begin rolling in during the night of November 3–4 (Italian time). However, tight races could take days to call, leaving control of either chamber in suspense. California is among the states where counting takes longest, as election officials must verify and process a large volume of mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day, which are permitted to arrive up to seven days later. If control of the House hinges on a few close California districts, final results may take time.
Procedures vary significantly by state. In Alaska, voters use a ranked-choice voting system; if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round, additional tabulation rounds are required to redistribute preferences. Automatic recounts and legal challenges could further delay final outcomes.
A prolonged vote count could give Trump an extended window to challenge unfavorable results and claim that late-arriving mail-in ballots are evidence of fraud. The president has already made unproven assertions that California’s election system is rigged. However, state laws explicitly allow valid mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted as they arrive over subsequent days; shifts in vote tallies after polls close do not indicate fraud.
Concerns also extend to potential executive branch intervention. Trump has publicly advocated for federalizing elections, which are constitutionally managed by state and local authorities.
A Reuters investigation interviewing over fifty election officials, legal experts, and scholars detailed potential federal interference scenarios. These include applying pressure on local officials to delay election certification, or executing federal seizures of ballots and voting equipment under the guise of law enforcement investigations, which could halt local vote counts mid-process.
